Mountain Glacier Melt to Contribute 12 Centimeters to World Sea-Level Increases by 2100.

The largest contributors to projected global sea-level increases are glaciers in Arctic Canada, Alaska and landmass bound glaciers in the Antarctic. Glaciers in the European Alps, New Zealand, the Caucasus, Western Canada and the Western United Sates--though small absolute contributors to global sea-level increases--are projected to lose more than 50 per cent of their current ice volume.

The study modelled volume loss and melt off from 120,000 mountain glaciers and ice caps, and is one of the first to provide detailed projections by region. Currently, melt from smaller mountain glaciers and ice caps is responsible for a disproportionally large portion of sea level increases, even though they contain less than one per cent of all water on Earth bound in glacier ice.

"There is a lot of focus on the large ice sheets but very few global scale studies quantifying how much melt to expect from these smaller glaciers that make up about 40 percent of the entire sea-level rise that we observe right now," says Valentina Radic, a postdoctoral researcher with the Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences and lead author of the study.

Increases in sea levels caused by the melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, and the thermal expansion of water, are excluded from the results.
Radic and colleague Regine Hock at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks, modelled future glacier melt based on temperature and precipitation projections from 10 global climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

"While the overall sea level increase projections in our study are on par with IPCC studies, our results are more detailed and regionally resolved," says Radic. "This allows us to get a better picture of projected regional ice volume change and potential impacts on local water supplies, and changes in glacier size distribution."

Global projections of sea level rises from mountain glacier and ice cap melt from the IPCC range between seven and 17 centimetres by the end of 2100. Radic's projections are only slightly higher, in the range of seven to 18 centimetres.

Radic's projections don't include glacier calving--the production of icebergs. Calving of tide-water glaciers may account for 30 per cent to 40 per cent of their total mass loss.

"Incorporating calving into the models of glacier mass changes on regional and global scale is still a challenge and a major task for future work," says Radic.
However, the new projections include detailed projection of melt off from small glaciers surrounding the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, which have so far been excluded from, or only estimated in, global assessments.

Aerial photo of Mount Garibaldi, Diamond Head with Howe Sound and Squamish British Columbia below. Melt off from small mountain glaciers and ice caps will contribute about 12 centimetres to world sea-level increases by 2100, according to University of British Columbia research. (Credit: iStockphoto/Douglas Burne)

Construction of the World's Largest Neutrino Observatory Completed: Antarctica's IceCube

The last of 86 holes had been drilled and a total of 5,160 optical sensors are now installed to form the main detector--a cubic kilometer of instrumented ice--of the IceCube Neutrino Observatory, located at the National Science Foundation's Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station.

From its vantage point at the end of the world, IceCube provides an innovative means to investigate the properties of fundamental particles that originate in some of the most spectacular phenomena in the universe.

In the deep, dark, stillness of the Antarctic ice, IceCube records the rare collisions of neutrinos--elusive sub-atomic particles--with the atomic nuclei of the water molecules of the ice. Some neutrinos come from the sun, while others come from cosmic rays interacting with the Earth's atmosphere and dramatic astronomical sources such as exploding stars in the Milky Way and other distant galaxies. Trillions of neutrinos stream through the human body at any given moment, but they rarely interact with regular matter, and researchers want to know more about them and where they come from.

The size of the observatory is important because it increases the number of potential collisions that can be observed, making neutrino astrophysics a reality.

The completion of construction brings to a culmination one of the most ambitious and complex multinational scientific projects ever attempted. The National Science Foundation (NSF) contributed $242 million toward the total project cost of $279 million. NSF is the manager of the United States Antarctic Program, which coordinates all U.S. research on the southernmost continent.

The University of Wisconsin-Madison, as the lead U.S. institution for the project, was funded by NSF to manage and coordinate the work needed to design and build the complex and often unique components and software for the project.

The university designed and built the Enhanced Hot Water Drill, which was assembled at the physical sciences lab in Stoughton, Wisconsin. The 4.8- megawatt hot-water drill is a unique machine that can penetrate more than two kilometers into the ice in less than two days.

After the hot water drill bores cleanly through the ice sheet, deployment specialists attach optical sensors to cable strings and lower them to depths between 1,450 and 2,450 meters. The ice itself at these depths is very dark and optically ultratransparent.

Each string has 60 sensors at depth and the 86 strings make up the main IceCube Detector. In addition, four more sensors sit on the top of the ice above each string, forming the IceTop array. The IceTop array combined with the IceCube detector form the IceCube Observatory, whose sensors record the neutrino interactions.

The successful completion of the observatory is also a milestone for international scientific cooperation on the southernmost continent. In addition to researchers at universities and research labs in the U.S., Belgium, Germany and Sweden--the countries that funded the observatory--IceCube data are analyzed by the larger IceCube Collaboration, which also includes researchers from Barbados, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, Switzerland and the United Kingdom.

"IceCube is not only a magnificent observatory for fundamental astrophysical research, it is the kind of ambitious science that can only be attempted through the cooperation--the science diplomacy, if you will--of many nations working together in the finest traditions of Antarctic science toward a single goal," said Karl A. Erb, director of NSF's Office of Polar Programs.

"To complete such an ambitious project, both on schedule and within budget, is a tribute to the fine work of the University of Wisconsin-Madison and its partner institutions, but it's also a reflection of the excellence of the personnel and infrastructure of the U.S. Antarctic Program," he added. "Science like IceCube is done in Antarctica because it is a unique global laboratory. I am very gratified that the U.S. Antarctic Program is equal to the challenge of supporting such a project."

IceCube is among the most ambitious and complex scientific construction projects ever attempted.

To build the observatory, all project personnel, equipment, food, and detector components had to be transported to Antarctica from various places around the globe. Everything then had to be flown in ski-equipped C-130 cargo aircraft from McMurdo Station near the Antarctic coast to the South Pole, more than 800 air miles away.

Working only during the relatively warm and short Antarctic summer--from November through February, when the sun shines 24 hours a day--drill and deployment teams worked in shifts to maximize their short time on the ice each year.

An international team of scientists, engineers and computer specialists have been working on development and construction of the detector since November 1999, when the first proposal was submitted to NSF and partners in Belgium, Germany and Sweden.

In the 1950's, Nobelist in physics Frederick Reines and other particle physicists realized that neutrinos could be used as astronomical messengers. Unlike light, neutrinos pass through most matter, making them a unique probe into the most violent processes in the universe involving neutron stars and black holes. The neutrinos IceCube studies have energies far exceeding those produced by manmade accelerators.

Unlike many large-scale science projects, IceCube began recording data before construction was complete. Each year since 2005 following the first deployment season, the new configuration of sensor strings began taking data. Each year as the detector grew, more and better data made its way from the South Pole to the data warehouses in the University of Wisconsin and around the world.

"Even in this challenging phase of the project, we published results on the search for dark matter and found intriguing patterns in the arrival directions of cosmic rays. Already, IceCube has extended the measurements of the atmospheric neutrino beam to energies in excess of 100 TeV," said Francis Halzen, principal investigator for the project. "With the completion of IceCube, we are on our way to reaching a level of sensitivity that may allow us to see neutrinos from sources beyond the sun."

Funding agencies outside of the U.S. that contributed to the construction of the IceCube Observatory are:

• in Belgium: Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique (FRS-FNRS) and Fonds voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek (FWO);
• in Germany: Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron Project (PD-DESY): and
• in Sweden: Swedish Research Council (VR), and the Knut and Alice Wallenburg Foundation.

Sensor descends down a hole in the ice as part of the final season of IceCube. Icecube is among the most ambitious scientific construction projects ever attempted. (Credit: NSF/B. Gudbjartsson)

Antarctic Sea Ice Increase Not Linked to Ozone Hole, New Research Shows

While sea ice extent has declined dramatically in the Arctic in recent years, it has increased slightly in the Antarctic. Some scientists have suggested that increased Antarctic sea ice extent can be explained by the ozone hole over Antarctica. Previous simulations have indicated that the ozone hole induces a large change in atmospheric circulation in austral summer and that this change in circulation could contribute to the changing Antarctic sea extent.

To learn more, M. Sigmond, of the Department of Physics at the University of Toronto, and J. C. Fyfe, of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, used a climate model, forced by monthly varying observed stratospheric ozone changes from 1979 to 2005, to simulate the effects of stratospheric ozone depletion on Antarctic sea ice extent.

Contrary to predictions of previous studies, their model finds that ozone depletion would lead to a year-round decrease in Antarctic sea ice extent rather than the increase that was observed. The results suggest that processes other than ozone depletion must be causing the observed increase in Antarctic sea ice extent.It remains unclear why Southern Hemisphere sea ice trends differ so greatly from Northern Hemisphere trends.

The research appears in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.